Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. Each authors two articles that seek impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates range over identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will in the end lose but each side has possesses something to gain from the alternative positions."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
